EU set to reduce green agriculture measures as scientists call for Paris-compliant farming

A failure to reduce emissions from food and farming will have wider economic impacts

Food and farming systems are responsible for a third of global emissions. Yet despite them being officially on the agenda for the first time time at COP28 in Dubai, in 2023, policymakers remain reluctant to tackle the sector’s emissions. A report by the Harvard Law School insists slashing livestock emissions is important to reach the Paris Agreement goals, but, in the EU at least, policymakers are allowing farmers to remain largely exempt from climate goals.

The report, “Options for a Paris-compliant livestock sector”, is based on responses from 200 climate scientists and sustainable food and agriculture experts in 48 countries.

Most of these experts (92 per cent) agree that reducing emissions from the livestock sector is important to limit temperatures to a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels, and that livestock emissions should be reduced as much as possible to lower the risk of temperatures exceeding 1.5C (87 per cent), states the report. Further, 78 per cent of the experts agree that absolute livestock numbers should peak globally by 2025 if climate goals are to be met.

The 2019 “Climate change and land” report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that a shift to plant-based diets has significant mitigation potential. A 2023 report by Dutch consultancy Profundo for environmental non-profit Madre Brava found that net savings of 728mn tonnes of carbon dioxide a year would be achieved if countries with high levels of meat consumption — such as the US, China, Brazil, the EU and the UK — replaced 30 per cent of meat with plant proteins.

Madre Brava managing director and co-founder Nico Muzi says the Harvard report “stresses once again that the scientific consensus is unanimous on the fact that we can’t limit global warming without cutting livestock emissions”. He believes that both policymakers and retailers have a responsibility to act to reduce emissions from livestock.

“Food retailers are hugely exposed, given that 95 per cent of retailers’ emissions are Scope 3 emissions embedded mainly in their meat products,” Muzi tells Sustainable Views. “Some European supermarkets are taking positive steps to help consumers adopt plant-rich diets, including increasing the amount of alternative proteins on their shelves to bring down their emissions.

“Policymakers should support efforts by the retail sector to promote healthy, affordable plant proteins and less unsustainable animal proteins by setting a clear regulatory path that includes promoting affordable plant proteins for people,” he adds.

Change direction of public spending

Edward Davey, senior adviser of food and land use coalition at non-profit the World Resources Institute, agrees that policymakers have a responsibility to act on agriculture if climate targets are to be achieved.

“The EU, and the UK, must continue to move in the direction of addressing livestock and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture — otherwise, they cannot and will not meet their climate goals, and all agriculture and all farmers will suffer the consequences of a further disrupted climate,” Davey tells Sustainable Views. “Public money for farmers can and must be oriented in the direction of supporting farmers to make the transition to more sustainable practices, including the livestock sector, which currently receives significant public support.”

Support for change can include payments to help “farmers to improve livestock management through greater adoption of improved practices which reduce GHG emissions within the livestock system”, says Davey. “But farms which cannot address their GHG emissions in this way should be supported to reduce herd size to climate-compatible levels.”

Jimmy Woodrow, executive directive of Pasture for Life, a UK-based organisation convinced by the importance of grazing animals for nature, takes a slightly more nuanced view.

“We absolutely agree that business as usual is not an option and that we need to see peak livestock, but a narrow carbon or greenhouse gas lens risks driving the wrong solutions for the future of food systems land management,” he tells Sustainable Views. “We would argue a more holistic assessment is needed, where the of role of grazing livestock in providing fertility, fuel and fibre and helping the food system wean itself off chemicals, is taken into consideration.

“Agricultural policies and subsidies are starting to link payments to the delivery of food alongside environmental goods, which is the right direction,” adds Woodrow. “But there’s a lot more work needed to better align the incentives with these wider holistic outcomes and ensure the appropriate support structures to help farmers get there are in place.”

‘Spineless politicians’

Many green groups in Brussels, and in some EU member states including France, are concerned that the ongoing farmers protests are being used by certain political groups, notably on the right and far right of the political spectrum, to move policies in the opposite direction by reducing environmental demands. Indeed, the European Commission is expected as early as today (Friday) to propose making various mandatory environmental actions voluntary for farmers.

Faustine Bas-Defossez, director for nature, health and environment at non-profit the European Environmental Bureau, says the Harvard report “is yet another piece of evidence that clearly illustrates that if the EU hopes to align with the targets set out by the Paris Agreement, it is vital that human diets shift from livestock-derived foods to livestock-replacement foods”.

“We need a food transition urgently and the discrepancy between that urgent need and the lack of EU actions is beyond belief,” she says. “Worse still is the rolling back of initiatives, pushed by those with vested interests and in total contradiction with internal law-making rules, transparency and participatory approaches.”

The idea of “axing environmental requirements” under the Common Agricultural Policy is a “short-sighted decision [that] will endanger the viability of EU agriculture and future food security”, says Bas-Defossez.

“We cannot avoid climate breakdown without a massive reduction in farming emissions, freeing up land for the restoration of carbon stocks and much more ecological ways of production on all farms,” Ariel Brunner, director of non-profit BirdLife Europe, tells Sustainable Views.

“None of this is happening under current policies, and none of it can happen with current livestock numbers. We need binding emissions reduction targets, smart policies to drive reduction in consumption, and generous, but targeted and honest, support for farmers that need to go through the transition,” says Brunner.

He also warns that a failure to change will have serious impacts not just on farmers, but also on the rest of the economy.

“Farming in the EU is held hostage by regressive farm unions and spineless politicians that obey their orders,” says Brunner. “This is leading farmers down a blind alley. The window of opportunity is closing, but almost all our policies are pushing us in the wrong direction.

“Farmers are among the most exposed in our society when it comes to climate chaos and ecosystem collapse. At the moment it looks like things will need to get a lot worse before the power of the farm lobby is seriously challenged,” he continues. “One question is how long will the rest of the economy tolerate this situation. Floods and water shortages are produced by a tiny sector in terms of both employment and wealth creation, but their devastating impacts affect the bulk of the population and the economy.”

Strategic dialogue

The commission says it welcomes the Harvard report. “In the EU, the European Green Deal has established the objective of reaching climate neutrality by 2050, and agriculture, like all other sectors, can make positive contribution to this objective,” a spokesperson for the EU executive tells Sustainable Views.

“Since 1990, EU agriculture has lowered its GHG emission by 21 per cent while increasing productivity, but we need to continue efforts and achieve more,” they say, also citing the commission’s recent recommendation for a target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by 90 per cent by 2040. However, references to a 30 per cent reduction target for methane, nitrogen and other gases linked to farming by 2040 included in earlier drafts were removed from the final document.

“Overall, the path to a green transition in the land sector must be fair and be done in a dialogue with farmers,” says the spokesperson, insisting this was why commission president Ursula von der Leyen had launched a strategic dialogue on the future of agriculture with farmers and other stakeholders.

“In the EU, livestock is crucial for agriculture and rural areas,” they insist, estimating that it represents 40 per cent of total agriculture value. “We need to ensure that livestock production takes place in the most sustainable possible way in the EU, where we also have the highest standards for environment and food safety.”